A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
